Friday, May 16, 2014

Fall of Congress, Rise of BJP and Dawn of AAP in 2014

These 2014 elections could be a turning point for Indian history, from an era of socialistic Nehruvism to Capitalistic era of Modism.

                               The primary reason for the anger of the people of India on Congress was the apathy of the party to the steep price rise, insensitivity of their leaders. Shifting of Jaipal Reddy as Oil minister was the starting of sinking of the government. Increase in Oil prices led to massive increase in other prices. Then the social welfare programmes got struck up, the connectivity between the NAC led by Sonia and the government got disconnected, the masses left enmasse. Then intellectuals, Chidambaram, Kapil Sibal,Salman Khurshid , Anand Sharma, Montek Singh Ahuluwalia showed up their disconnect with people with their policies and communications,sort of intellectual arrogance. Then policy making from PMO came to a abrupt stop 2-3 years which stopped the generation of employment, youngsters moved away from congress. Then came the division of AP, throwing away Jagan Mohan Reddy to prison, hurt the congress faithful Telugu people and turned to  hate feeling for the party. The so called Congress Srilankan policy turned away Tamils, took away the congress vote base in TN, brought the youth congress movement to naught. In UP no congress leader was groomed to take forward the work of Rahul, a single Amit Shah with the help of the RSS volunteers could revive BJP in one year ! This showed that congress leaders have turned into arm chair leaders. It would be hugely difficult for the party to resurrect itself in the coming years. The party has to move away from the Gandhi family and nurture leaders from the districts to national leaders, say people like Ajay Maken,Sachin Pilot, Milind Deora, Scindia, Jairam Ramesh, Shashi Tharoor (but most of them are from dynastic descent rather than from the grassroots !). Congress has lost leaders from south India like Moopanar,YSR, SM Krishna, and havent got one during these years or they were not groomed. Congress have to discover or re-invent themselves, which would be a painful process. This isnt going to be easy as the whole of India is going to be saffron painted in the coming days.

                             The rise of AAP is a sensation in this election. But how are they going to keep themselves alive is the question in the mind of people. They last their base Delhi, the core of their revolutionary rise but it looks like they have retained their vote bank. The biggest take away from this election is the insider dealing of leaders not having strong candidates against them nor campaigning against them was thrawted and secondly, Modi, Gandhi family and many stalwarts were given a run for their money and most importantly they have broken the caste barriers in many states, thats thumbs up for AAP. Their decision for Pan India presence was also the right one. But only now their work has started. They seem to have caught the imagination of the dalits, minorities and forward thinking youngsters. How are they going to sustain themselves interms of financial resources and human resources in a question mark. The Delhi and the Varanasi model of campigning and building the volunteer base has to be replicated Pan India. They need to move away from the congress and BJP of a Nationally governed party to a party that is controlled from the bottom to top. The state AAP should have the identity, they may have policies that are in complete difference to the national AAP, why not ?? TN AAP could have a policy on Srilanka, the national AAP have to agree to disagree with them !The Kanyakumari AAP may think that KNPP is not safe for them, in which case TN AAP may have to agree to disagree ! National AAP could be a sort of coalition of state AAPs !! With state AAPs have their own identity and policy making..This could bring Unity in Diversity, the crux of India. There needs to be Kejriwals in each state. The courage and boldness to standup for the man on the street in their trademark, which has to go on. But the model of financial sustenance, AAP in the national and state have to comeup with some innovation. They will not have the luxury of industry funding and the black markets which the regular parties have.All national parties will take them seriously now, will also be scared of them. They have a bright future ahead of them. With many talented people with them, they need to find how to channelise and use them effectively in the coming days.

                         The BJP's Modi ride may not be smooth. They are bound to change the contours of Indian history for next few decades. The MGREGM, scholorships/loans for dalits and minorities may not be the priority, would go the backburner. Will the price rise be controlled? Definitely its going to be difficult under a BJP capitalistic administration. The equitable and inclusive development may not be seen for next few years. The braminical mindset era is making a comeback, but no one knows will this work in these years of enlighted people. But we could expect streamlining of many systems in the field of S&T, Telecom, Education etc. Modi did make quite a lot of efforts to change his image in the last five years in Gujarat as an inclusive person but will he continue that work at the national level resisting all pulls and pressures among his party and RSS, only time will tell.

                        But the question in my mind is, why is there  no transparency and accountablity in the spending of parties. For instance how much did Modi, Rahul and Jayalalitha spend for the long campaigning? It looks like election commission is spinless with such huge unaccountability. Who all funded Modi campign for more than a year now? Will someone spill the beans? If equality and transparency in funding  is in place, the true feedback from people can be realised. Election reforms are a necessity. But who will bring it!

We Indians have to sympatheise with ourselves, so many years after freedom, still we are far away from social and economic equality. Indian electorate is hard to decipher. The first thing for an average Indian would be leave him alone, let us first live for that day. This was disturbed & distracted in the past 3-4 years. The rural urban divide in terms of development has increased considerably.  Will there be a pan india, pan people development, we have to wait and watch, keep our fingers crossed. For now the industrialists and businessmen are celebrating but how this will work for the man on the street, no one knows. Let us wait and see !

Tuesday, December 17, 2013

AAP adika mudiyuma :-)....!!

AAP adika mudiyuma :-)....!!


                                In our locality we heard a drainage is going to come, metro water too soon, as many of them in our neighbourhood, we were also excited. But after more than an year, all we got was existing roads dugup indefinitely, many lanes becoming inaccessable. I heard from a friend from another part of the city that the drainage done couple of years back have already caved in and yet to receive the water connections :-( Another family friend shared that most of his collegues from his school have got transferred to their convenience greasing the concerned.
Should the government be running alcholic outlets from every housing colony :)) Should everyone be coming down to Chennai for jobs..Many towns are left with retirees :-) Cities like Trichy and coimbatore are industry based, they have lost their charm, many their jobs and peace. Each day we hear about our fisherman taken hostage by SL Navy, but why no pro-active steps...

When one is pondering over all such happenings around you we hear about a new phenomena called AAP, but will it be relevant to Tamilnadu

A Delhi based leader called Kejriwal
Indian politics revolves around an Indra, a Rajiv, a Jayalalitha, a Kalaignar, a Modi and Kejriwal now...A film fanatic community like Tamilnadu had Anna, MGR, Kalaignar, Jayalalitha, Captain..........what can AAP do here...Should Kejriwal position himself as another Modi and market Pan-India :-) Or another grass roots common person like Kejriwal, well informed, highly intelligent persona but yet rooted to his beginnings and purpose comes up in Tamilnadu...

National executive, National political affairs committee
Congress calls it AICC, BJP calls it as Parliamentary board, so will state AAPs be driven by their National executive,PAC or have an unique regional identity, which may have sometimes cross purposes with their National team...How do they try to handle these...They may become another central command structure...I dont know whether each state AAP has to throw up its own Kejriwals :-) Will all the state Kejriwals be able to team up together sinking their identities...

Hindi, Metro...
The AAP topi has Hindi words, which all of us cant read or least interested..and these topis are associated with Northern Indian traditon..Kejriwal travels by Wagan R and lives in an apartment.But most of his admirers and aspirants to volunteer for him, possibily stand in elections happen to be from upper middle class or civil elites. Can they still find common man and will the upper middle class work for this common man :-)

He has guts and Delhi vocal advocates backup..
Kejriwal has survived against all odds..but will the going be easy for those who are likely to sail across the winds..There are many right activists based out of Delhi and form a back bone for many small activists too..But activism in Tamilnadu is rather nil and truth is many fear the repercussions :-)

Funding...
Its said Congress and BJP spends atleast two crores for each constituency from Delhi for Lok Sabha elections, that works out to 1000 Crores for each party. Then the candidates themselves mobilise crores. Adding to that the state elections another thousand crores and sustaining year long another 500 crores....Looks like our national parties turn over will be more than leading corporates.. In these where to fit in AAP...

Amma canteen, Small bus, free grinder-mixie, Amma water, Amma market...
When people see these things, they get food at the cheapest price, buses upto near their houses, cheap veg markets...Looks like the poor ppl have been taken care of during these days of high inflation...Where will AAP come in here...Of course one cant be critiquing such well meaningful programmes.

Media
Delhi based English and Hindi media did back up the IAC Jan Lokpal agitations, later the  Nirubhaya case and the indignition created over these moved over to AAP. But in Tamilnadu most media organisations are owned by political parties ! Where would AAP get media space...

Social media and Social conditions
A huge section of young tamil populations are into facebook, which was seen during the support generated by college students during the recent Srilankan Tamils agitations lead by the Loyala students. There is a huge section among student community feeling deprived and marginalised by various factors. These are youngsters from the slums and dalit communities around Tamilnadu. But they are an vibrant community looking to have their say in the mainstream polity, which was seen during the students Srilankan agitation. The 67% reservation is an unique successful social experiment in this part of the country. We see equitable development of the population. But one should agree that the Dalit population is still stigmatized and quite more needs to be done to bring them to the mainstream.

Caste and religion
Caste based outfits have increased over the period of two years. Interestingly the hypothesis that high level of literacy would bring down castism seem to be wrong in the case of Tamilnadu. Religion is a mainstay for tamils too. With castist mind sets it would be difficult for AAP to penetrate..

Quality of life
Places like Tamilnadu and Kerala, literacy levels are better. The basic infrastructure from roads, buses, ration shops, government schools in rural areas are better than in Northern India. The delivery mechanism through ration shops are really good. In Chennai atleast every street has water tanks that is filled once in two days by Metro lorries and people have access to free treated water. The previous DMK government could dole out their free TV sets to almost to the entire populace successfully but failed miserably in the elections. What Tamil people may ask would be, develop and maintain the slums into very good hygienic comfortable living conditions. Affordable housing for middle class with real estate prices sky rocketing due to corrupt practices. Best medical and education access to the poor. Agriculture is a dying profession but has to be resurrected using technology and using people like MS Swaminathan.



With all these, AAP adikanumna (sorry for bit colloquial), AAP could put candidates in five to ten places only, may be in Chennai and in central Tamilnadu, work hard to get vote shares. But activists across the state should be bold to pull off day today corrupt practices, organise weekend workshops, meetings and agitations. Create awareness in the slums, rural heartland of their rights for next one year and should set a stage for the next state elections. Tamilnadu and Karnataka could be a good starting ground for AAP to foray into the south.